Let’s rethink safety in space system design, urges Šálený

Instead of cumbersome, oversized safety solutions that are often excessively expensive and robust, a completely new approach can be applied in space technologies—one based on understanding risks and their probabilities. This approach ensures safety while reducing material and resource waste. This, in a nutshell, describes the design safety approach in space technologies presented by Vratislav Šálený, the BUT space coordinator, at the AXRO 2024 conference.

“Imagine designing a space station that will orbit the Moon. Traditional design approaches for such systems rely on so-called conservative safety margins. Engineers therefore add extra material, energy, or other resources to ensure the system can handle even the worst-case scenarios. While this approach guarantees safety, it often results in cumbersome, oversized, and expensive solutions. The new approach views design differently. Instead of worst-case scenarios, it uses advanced uncertainty quantification methods, analyzing potential deviations from the design and applying statistical methods to find the best realistic solution. It works with the probability that certain events may occur simultaneously,” explains researcher Vratislav Šálený from the Energy Institute, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering.

Using computer simulations, it is possible to test what happens when different events—such as rocket launch vibrations, temperature fluctuations, or manufacturing inaccuracies—occur simultaneously. Based on these simulations, a design can be created that is safe without wasting material and resources. “By precisely managing risks, we maintain safety and make the technology lighter and cheaper through efficient resource use, which is crucial because every kilogram sent into space costs millions,” Šálený points out.

This innovative approach opens up entirely new possibilities for building better satellites, space stations, or modules for landing on the Moon or Mars. “We are pushing the boundaries of traditional thinking from ‘what if the worst happens’ to ‘what is the probability of certain scenarios occurring, and how can we respond most effectively?’” adds Šálený, who presented his paper on this topic in mid-November at the International Conference on Astronomical X-Ray Optics AXRO 2024 in Prague.

The Rise of the Chinese Program

The main goal of the conference is to present and exchange views on the latest technologies for missions in so-called X-ray astronomy. This field studies space objects that emit X-rays, the most common sources being neutron stars, supernovae, nebulae formed after supernova explosions, and black holes. “The conference participants were primarily top scientists focused on observing the universe in the X-ray spectrum. Many of them are involved in the world’s most significant current space missions. These experts are often in positions of customers, commissioners, and users of engineering designs, which might be why my presentation caught their interest,” says Šálený, who was pleased with the positive feedback. “Some even expressed interest in collaborating on computer simulations focused on the statistical optimization of applied surface layer properties, representing a very interesting industrial application for this new approach we are developing at BUT in cooperation with UptimAI,” he adds.

The event attracted both top domestic space research professionals and prominent international guests, such as William W. Zhang from NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Vadim Burwitz from the Max Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics.

The conference also addressed two current globally significant space missions. The first is the Einstein Probe: a Chinese scientific satellite developed in collaboration with ESA and the Max Planck Institute, launched successfully this January. Its mission is to study black holes, dark matter and energy, habitable exoplanets, and the fundamental laws of the universe. The second is the eXTP (enhanced X-ray Timing and Polarimetry) mission, which will focus on studying the behavior of extremely dense matter in strong gravitational and magnetic fields. This is another Chinese project, with the satellite launch expected in early 2030.

“Both missions reflect one of the unmistakable trends in space research: the growing role of the People’s Republic of China and its Academy of Sciences in the world’s most significant space missions, including those mentioned above. This indicates China’s increasing influence in space research and its ability to finance and organize technologically demanding and scientifically ambitious projects. This should prompt Europe to consider how to strengthen its position in space research,” Šálený adds.

“Attending the conference was particularly beneficial for me because it allowed me to meet leading global experts in X-ray space observation and enrich my knowledge of the latest developments in this field. The AXRO conference, with its fifteen-year tradition, is a unique platform where these top scientists regularly gather. A big thanks for this exceptional format goes to Professor René Hudec, the conference’s visionary, and his outstanding organizing team,” concludes Šálený.

Source: Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, BUT

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Author	Mgr. Iveta Hovorková
Published	2024-11-27 12:22
Link	https://www.vut.cz/en/but/f19528/d270008