Publication detail

The influence of non-price factors on the market with new building - case study for Warsaw

OULEHLA, J. MELUZÍN, T. LUŇÁČEK, J.

Original Title

The influence of non-price factors on the market with new building - case study for Warsaw

Type

conference paper

Language

English

Original Abstract

Research background: The real estate market is one of the often common areas. Current procedures, however, directly assess the market equilibrium or focus on predicting further developments concerning rising real estate prices. However, the offer page contains a factor that has not yet been part of the solved models. This factor is the number of building permits. If the demand for new housing is increasing, the number of building permits is a factor that allows for an increase in the supply. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to identify the factors influencing the number of building permits in the capital city of Warsaw. The influence of macroeconomic, microeconomic and demographic factors is examined. Methods: This study uses secondary data from the Polish Statistical Office and the Polish National Bank. Other data is taken from EUROSTAT. General scientific methods are Granger causality and multifactor regression. Findings & Value added: The correlation results brings those results. Statistically, the significant variable is not Consumer Price Index and The Number of Inhabitants. Other variables showed a statistically significant correlation. The variable The Number of Inhabitants shows the negative value of correlation, but it is not statistically significant. Defined hypotheses have the following evaluation: H1. For growth in the supply of residential housing is a significant factor in GDP. GDP has the most substantial influence. According to the metric used, 1% of GDP means increase in building permits about 26 pieces. Other variables reach a maximum of 0.7%. The second statistically significant variable is population growth. It is only half the strength of GDP and is significant at 5% level alpha. This hypothesis was confirmed, for the variable GDP was identified most robust statistical significance both at the 5% level and at the level of 1% for case of WARSAW. H2. Average wage growth is not a statistically significant variable. The average wage is not a statistically significant variable. Compared to the other but has a powerful influence. Since the most crucial factor of GDP differs by only 0.3%, it is a decisive factor, which average wage growth also means growth in building permits issued. The average wage also affects the result, but not statistically significant.

Keywords

New residence building; Granger causality; Determinants; Multiple regression; GDP

Authors

OULEHLA, J.; MELUZÍN, T.; LUŇÁČEK, J.

Released

31. 12. 2019

Publisher

Institute of Economic Research

Location

Toruň/ Poland

ISBN

978-83-65605-11-5

Book

Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Applied Economics

Edition

Contemporary Issues in Economy: Economics

Pages from

299

Pages to

307

Pages count

9

BibTex

@inproceedings{BUT162141,
  author="Jiří {Oulehla} and Tomáš {Meluzín} and Jiří {Luňáček}",
  title="The influence of non-price factors on the market with
new building - case study for Warsaw",
  booktitle="Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Applied Economics",
  year="2019",
  series="Contemporary Issues in Economy: Economics",
  pages="299--307",
  publisher="Institute of Economic Research",
  address="Toruň/ Poland",
  doi="10.24136/eep.proc.2019.1",
  isbn="978-83-65605-11-5"
}