Publication detail

The Impact of the Uncertain Input Data of Multi-Purpose Reservoir Volumes under Hydrological Extremes

PASEKA, S. MARTON, D.

Original Title

The Impact of the Uncertain Input Data of Multi-Purpose Reservoir Volumes under Hydrological Extremes

Type

journal article in Web of Science

Language

English

Original Abstract

The topic of uncertainties in water management tasks is a very extensive and highly discussed one. It is generally based on the theory that uncertainties comprise epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty. This work deals with the comprehensive determination of the functional water volumes of a reservoir during extreme hydrological events under conditions of aleatoric uncertainty described as input data uncertainties. In this case, the input data uncertainties were constructed using the Monte Carlo method and applied to the data employed in the water management solution of the reservoir: (i) average monthly water inflows, (ii) hydrographs, (iii) bathygraphic curves and (iv) water losses by evaporation and dam seepage. To determine the storage volume of the reservoir, a simulation-optimization model of the reservoir was developed, which uses the balance equation of the reservoir to determine its optimal storage volume. For the second hydrological extreme, a simulation model for the transformation of flood discharges was developed, which works on the principle of the first order of the reservoir differential equation. By linking the two models, it is possible to comprehensively determine the functional volumes of the reservoir in terms of input data uncertainties. The practical application of the models was applied to a case study of the Vír reservoir in the Czech Republic, which fulfils the purpose of water storage and flood protection. The obtained results were analyzed in detail to verify whether the reservoir is sufficiently resistant to current hydrological extremes and also to suggest a redistribution of functional volumes of the reservoir under conditions of measurement uncertainty.

Keywords

multi-purpose reservoir; functional volume; uncertainties; Monte Carlo method; hydrological extremes; simulation-optimization model; optimal storage volume; simulation model; retention volume; transformation of flood discharges

Authors

PASEKA, S.; MARTON, D.

Released

16. 5. 2021

Publisher

MDPI

Location

St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel, Switzerland

ISBN

2073-4441

Periodical

Water

Year of study

13

Number

10

State

Swiss Confederation

Pages from

1

Pages to

25

Pages count

25

URL

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/10/1389/htm

Full text in the Digital Library

http://hdl.handle.net/11012/200983

BibTex

@article{BUT171656,
  author="Stanislav {Paseka} and Daniel {Marton}",
  title="The Impact of the Uncertain Input Data of Multi-Purpose Reservoir Volumes under Hydrological Extremes",
  journal="Water",
  year="2021",
  volume="13",
  number="10",
  pages="1--25",
  doi="10.3390/w13101389",
  issn="2073-4441",
  url="https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13/10/1389/htm"
}