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Publication detail
KARAS, M. REŽŇÁKOVÁ, M.
Original Title
Statistical methods of sales forecasting
Type
conference paper
Language
English
Original Abstract
The aim of this paper is to present the basic statistical approaches used for sales forecast and the risks resulting from the choosing of the wrong trend. Especially to compare the suitability of linear, parabolic a exponential trend of regression analysis with the same trends of time series methods on the case of real company. The suitability the mentioned trends or methods is based on error functions, the Theils index and the determination index. The results suggest, that the trend choosed by best theorethical value of error function need not to lead to most accurate value in future. The suitability of the used trend can not be view only as a problem of how to best describe the future, but to consider the changes of the business enviroment in the meaning of strategic analysis.
Keywords
Future sales, regression analysis, time series,
Authors
KARAS, M.; REŽŇÁKOVÁ, M.
RIV year
2011
Released
17. 11. 2011
Location
Iževsk, Rusko
ISBN
978-5-7526-0520-8
Book
Modern Problems Economy, Business and Management: Theory and Practice
Pages from
29
Pages to
35
Pages count
196
BibTex
@inproceedings{BUT74955, author="Michal {Karas} and Mária {Režňáková}", title="Statistical methods of sales forecasting", booktitle="Modern Problems Economy, Business and Management: Theory and Practice", year="2011", pages="29--35", address="Iževsk, Rusko", isbn="978-5-7526-0520-8" }