OPTIMISATION OF FUZZY MODELS AS A TOOL FOR PREDICTION CREDIBILITY

conference paper

English

There are several methods, which describe and solve prediction, for example of foreign currency development. Some of these are based for example on principles of differentiation of diagrams, those modern on the base of neuron networks and mathematic models. The method described below deals with prediction on the base of fuzzy logics, with the main goal is not based on concrete prediction of foreign currency exchange rates, but on creation of algorithms, which serve to generate knowledge basis sets. These are consecutively processed with fuzzy expert system. The knowledge basis being generated putted through optimisation of foreign currency exchange rates development at last with the aim to state their optimum length, or to find out the measurement errors on the base of difference of several input parameters. The optimisation result could eliminate errors within knowledge basis creation in substantial extent and therefore the prediction credibility.

fuzzy logic, base knowladge, prediction

DYDOWICZ, P.

1. 1. 2002

Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Management

Brno

80-86510-39-5

Business and Economic Development in Central and Eastern Europe: Implications for Economic Integration into Wider Europe

130-134

5