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DOUBRAVSKÝ, K. DOHNAL, M.
Originální název
QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING
Typ
článek v časopise ve Web of Science, Jimp
Jazyk
angličtina
Originální abstrakt
This paper studies macroeconomic models based on a set of qualitative heuristics. A qualitative heuristic is described using just trends; i.e. increasing, decreasing, constant. The trends are the least information intensive quantifiers. E.g. an unemployment is increasing more and more rapidly represents the positive first time derivative of the unemployment (increasing) and positive second derivative (more and more rapidly). It means that not just trends but higher derivatives can be incorporated into a model if they are qualitatively known. No quantitative quantifiers, e.g. numbers, fuzzy sets, are used in this paper. The solution of a qualitative model is a set S of scenarios. A set T of transitions among the set of scenarios S is used to generate an oriented graph H. Any future and past time behaviour of the system under study is described by a path within the graph H. A ten-dimensional macroeconomic serves as a case study.
Klíčová slova
Qualitative, Dynamics, Multidimensional, Macroeconomic forecasting.
Autoři
DOUBRAVSKÝ, K.; DOHNAL, M.
Vydáno
5. 1. 2018
Nakladatel
Elsevier
ISSN
0954-349X
Periodikum
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics
Ročník
2018
Číslo
45
Stát
Nizozemsko
Strany od
1
Strany do
7
Strany počet
URL
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16300352
BibTex
@article{BUT143820, author="Karel {Doubravský} and Mirko {Dohnal}", title="QUALITATIVE EQUATIONLESS MACROECONOMIC MODELS AS GENERATORS OF ALL POSSIBLE FORECASTS BASED ON THREE TREND VALUES – INCREASING, CONSTANT, DECREASING", journal="Structural Change and Economic Dynamics", year="2018", volume="2018", number="45", pages="1--7", doi="10.1016/j.strueco.2018.01.001", issn="0954-349X", url="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16300352" }