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SMEJKALOVÁ, V. ŠOMPLÁK, R. NEVRLÝ, V. BURCIN, B. KUČERA, T.
Originální název
Trend forecasting for waste generation with structural break
Typ
článek v časopise ve Web of Science, Jimp
Jazyk
angličtina
Originální abstrakt
For waste management planning, the adequate estimation of future waste production is crucial. Within waste production forecasting it is necessary to tackle with several challenges. The waste production data often consists of annual short time-series, but prediction horizon considers long-term estimation. Trend analysis seems to be a suitable approach for modelling waste production and its extrapolation. A methodology for forecasting waste generation based on historical data with a structural break is presented. To apply the approach, it is necessary to determine the estimation of separation potential. The principle is based on the idea of credibility theory where information from all territories is combined. Experience from other territories, which are more advanced in separation development, is used for forecasting. Finally, the population projection is taken into account to obtain information on absolute waste production. The case study is devoted to the forecasting of bio-waste production at the micro-regional level in the Czech Republic. There has been revealed an essential impact when population forecasting was included in the model. The increase in the average bio-waste production for micro-regions is expected. It will grow from 67 kg/cap/year in 2017 to 156 kg/cap/year in 2030. In 2030, most micro-regions would reach their potential based on this forecasting.
Klíčová slova
Waste production; Structural break; Trend analysis; Credibility theory; Bio-waste; Population forecast
Autoři
SMEJKALOVÁ, V.; ŠOMPLÁK, R.; NEVRLÝ, V.; BURCIN, B.; KUČERA, T.
Vydáno
1. 9. 2020
ISSN
0959-6526
Periodikum
Journal of Cleaner Production
Ročník
266
Číslo
1
Stát
Spojené království Velké Británie a Severního Irska
Strany od
Strany do
16
Strany počet
URL
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121814
BibTex
@article{BUT164166, author="Veronika {Smejkalová} and Radovan {Šomplák} and Vlastimír {Nevrlý} and Boris {Burcin} and Tomáš {Kučera}", title="Trend forecasting for waste generation with structural break", journal="Journal of Cleaner Production", year="2020", volume="266", number="1", pages="1--16", doi="10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121814", issn="0959-6526", url="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121814" }