Detail publikace

Insolvency Forecasting through Trend Analysis with Full Ignorance of Probabilities

POLÁČEK, T. KRUNTORÁDOVÁ, M.

Originální název

Insolvency Forecasting through Trend Analysis with Full Ignorance of Probabilities

Typ

článek v časopise - ostatní, Jost

Jazyk

angličtina

Originální abstrakt

The complex views of insolvency proceedings are unique, poorly known, interdisciplinary and multidimensional, even though there is a broad spectrum of different BM (Bankruptcy Models). Therefore, it is often prohibitively difficult to make forecasts using numerical quantifiers and traditional statistical methods. The least information-intensive trend values are used: positive, increasing, zero, constant, negative, decreasing. The solution of a trend model is a set of scenarios where X is the set of variables quantified by the trends. All possible transitions among the scenarios are generated. An oriented transitional graph has a set of scenarios as nodes and the transitions as arcs. An oriented path describes any possible future and past time behaviour of the bankruptcy system under study. The graph represents the complete list of forecasts based on trends. An eight-dimensional model serves as a case study. On the transitional graph of the case study model, decision tree heuristics are used for calculating the probabilities of the terminal scenarios and possible payoffs.

Klíčová slova

forecast, insolvency, trend, qualitative, bankruptcy, transition

Autoři

POLÁČEK, T.; KRUNTORÁDOVÁ, M.

Vydáno

31. 5. 2020

Nakladatel

University of Economics, Prague

ISSN

1804-2112

Periodikum

Acta Oeconomica Pragensia

Ročník

27

Číslo

3-4

Stát

Česká republika

Strany od

17

Strany do

30

Strany počet

14

URL

https://aop.vse.cz/artkey/aop-201903-0002_insolvency-forecasting-through-trend-analysis-with-full-ignorance-of-probabilities.php

Plný text v Digitální knihovně

http://hdl.handle.net/11012/193385

BibTex

@article{BUT164176,
  author="Tomáš {Poláček} and Markéta {Kruntorádová}",
  title="Insolvency Forecasting through Trend Analysis with Full Ignorance of Probabilities",
  journal="Acta Oeconomica Pragensia",
  year="2020",
  volume="27",
  number="3-4",
  pages="17--30",
  doi="10.18267/j.aop.625",
  issn="1804-2112",
  url="https://aop.vse.cz/artkey/aop-201903-0002_insolvency-forecasting-through-trend-analysis-with-full-ignorance-of-probabilities.php"
}