Detail publikace

Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets

ŠIRÁŇOVÁ, L. VOCHOZKA, M. JANEK, S.

Originální název

Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets

Typ

článek v časopise ve Web of Science, Jimp

Jazyk

angličtina

Originální abstrakt

Phosphate fertilisers rank among limited conventional production aids, requiring eco-unfriendly mining methods. On the other hand, wheat is an indispensable agricultural commodity essential in the food industry. For this reason, it is appropriate to monitor the potential bivariate relationship between these commodities and to follow their future development closely. The article aims to identify a correlation (Kendall's tau) and causal (Granger causality test) between the price of Moroccan phosphate and wheat, applying vector autoregression (VAR). The results show a medium-to-strong correlation between phosphate and wheat, while causal analysis suggests a reciprocal relationship. The final prediction indicates the price stability of Moroccan phosphate and a fall in wheat prices, showing steady trends of the Moroccan phosphate and wheat market affected by the alarming situation in Ukraine. The article's drawbacks are a narrow market specialisation, which ignores other agricultural commodities. Our findings contribute to national officeholders and professional public, private and non-profit agrarian organisations. Investors may benefit from exploring turbulent exogenous variables like a critical geopolitical deadlock in Ukraine. The main contribution highlights the fact that the conventional fertiliser and wheat market situation appears to be stable and free from elements of uncertainty.

Klíčová slova

Granger causality; Kendall's tau; Moroccan phosphate; Vector Autoregression Model; wheat

Autoři

ŠIRÁŇOVÁ, L.; VOCHOZKA, M.; JANEK, S.

Vydáno

11. 8. 2023

Nakladatel

CZECH ACADEMY AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES

Místo

PRAGUE

ISSN

1805-9295

Periodikum

Agricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika

Ročník

69

Číslo

8

Stát

Česká republika

Strany od

301

Strany do

308

Strany počet

8

URL

https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php

Plný text v Digitální knihovně

http://hdl.handle.net/11012/245047

BibTex

@article{BUT184650,
  author="Marek {Vochozka} and Svatopluk {Janek} and Lenka {Širáňová}",
  title="Geopolitical deadlock and phosphate shortfall behind the price hike? Evidence from Moroccan commodity markets",
  journal="Agricultural Economics-Zemedelska Ekonomika",
  year="2023",
  volume="69",
  number="8",
  pages="301--308",
  doi="10.17221/140/2023-AGRICECON",
  issn="1805-9295",
  url="https://agricecon.agriculturejournals.cz/artkey/age-202308-0002_geopolitical-deadlock-and-phosphate-shortfall-behind-the-price-hike-evidence-from-moroccan-commodity-markets.php"
}