Detail publikace

Early Fast Cost Estimates of Sewerage Projects Construction Costs Based on Ensembles of Neural Networks

JUSZCZYK, M. HANÁK, T. VÝSKALA, M. PACYNO, H. SIEJDA, M.

Originální název

Early Fast Cost Estimates of Sewerage Projects Construction Costs Based on Ensembles of Neural Networks

Typ

článek v časopise ve Web of Science, Jimp

Jazyk

angličtina

Originální abstrakt

his paper presents research results on the development of an original cost prediction model for construction costs in sewerage projects. The focus is placed on fast cost estimates applicable in the early stages of a project, based on fundamental information available during the initial design phase of sanitary sewers prior to the detailed design. The originality and novelty of this research lie in the application of artificial neural network ensembles, which include a combination of several individual neural networks and the use of simple averaging and generalized averaging approaches. The research resulted in the development of two ensemble-based models, including five neural networks that were trained and tested using data collected from 125 sewerage projects completed in the Czech Republic between 2018 and 2022. The data included information relevant to various aspects of projects and contract costs, updated to account for changes in costs over time. The developed models present satisfactory predictive performance, especially the ensemble model based on simple averaging, which offers prediction accuracy within the range of ±30% (in terms of percentage errors) for over 90% of the training and testing samples. The developed models, based on the ensembles of neural networks, outperformed the benchmark model based on the classical approach and the use of multiple linear regression.

Klíčová slova

sewerage project; sanitary sewer networks; construction costs; construction project; early cost estimates; fast cost estimates; neural networks ensembles; artificial intelligence

Autoři

JUSZCZYK, M.; HANÁK, T.; VÝSKALA, M.; PACYNO, H.; SIEJDA, M.

Vydáno

28. 11. 2023

Nakladatel

MDPI

Místo

Polsko

ISSN

2076-3417

Periodikum

Applied Sciences - Basel

Ročník

13

Číslo

23

Stát

Švýcarská konfederace

Strany od

1

Strany do

24

Strany počet

24

URL

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/23/12744

Plný text v Digitální knihovně

http://hdl.handle.net/11012/245171

BibTex

@article{BUT185648,
  author="Michał {Juszczyk} and Tomáš {Hanák} and Miloslav {Výskala} and Hanna {Pacyno} and Michal {Siejda}",
  title="Early Fast Cost Estimates of Sewerage Projects Construction Costs Based on Ensembles of Neural Networks",
  journal="Applied Sciences - Basel",
  year="2023",
  volume="13",
  number="23",
  pages="1--24",
  doi="10.3390/app132312744",
  issn="2076-3417",
  url="https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/13/23/12744"
}