APPLICATION OF GAME THEORY IN FLOOD CONTROL USING FLOODPLAIN

článek ve sborníku ve WoS nebo Scopus

angličtina

The paper deals with the possibility of applying game theory in the decision of the dispatcher regarding the opening of the gates to the floodplain (construction of flood control measures). When the forecast of the flood course is bur ended with a random error from the normalized normal distribution N (0.1). The forecast itself is in the range of flows are capable of causing significant damage. The experiment tested different options for adjusting the probability of betrayal (error) of the forecast model. The probability of betrayal was assessed from 5% to 95%. Furthermore, different ratios between the damage caused when the gates were opened and the actual damage caused within the city flooding when the gates were not opened were tested. The experimental results clearly show that in the long run it is more beneficial to open the gates to the floodplain in the case of pure Nash equilibrium. In the case of mixed equilibria, opening (not opening) depends on the ratio of damages and the probability of betrayal (error) of the prediction model. The probability of controller betrayal (opposite action to the forecast action) alone is less significant compared to the above conditions.

Game theory, flood, floodplain, prisoner's dilemma, random prediction error.

KOZEL, T.

1. 12. 2023

STEF92 Technology

Bulgaria

1314-2704

International multidisciplinary geoconference SGEM

Bulharská republika

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