Detail publikace

Bankruptcy Prediction: To what Degree does Past Development Count?

KARAS, M. REŽŇÁKOVÁ, M.

Originální název

Bankruptcy Prediction: To what Degree does Past Development Count?

Typ

článek v časopise - ostatní, Jost

Jazyk

angličtina

Originální abstrakt

Abstract: In most cases, bankruptcy models are based on financial indicators (so called predictors) that describe a current condition or a certain area of financial health, like profitability, indebtedness and so on. But they do not tell us anything about relevant past development in this area. The main question of the research presented was, how much of the information about the past development could be useful in predicting bankruptcy. The aim of our research is to analyse the partial potential of financial ratios for predicting bankruptcy and to compare their importance with the importance of commonly used indicators. Twenty eight indicators were examined in a sample of construction companies operating in the Czech Republic, as well as their development over the past five periods. The non-parametric Boosted Trees method was used to evaluate the relative importance of predictors. The results show that the indicators describing past development could be a significant predictor of bankruptcy, however their main potential is in possible synergy with the indicators describing the current state, both being of the same area of financial health.

Klíčová slova

construction companies, bankruptcy prediction, financial ratio, dynamic indicators, model accuracy, multi-period transformation, model development

Autoři

KARAS, M.; REŽŇÁKOVÁ, M.

Vydáno

16. 12. 2016

Nakladatel

WSEAS

ISSN

2224-2899

Periodikum

WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

Ročník

13

Číslo

1

Stát

Rakouská republika

Strany od

480

Strany do

488

Strany počet

488

URL

http://wseas.org/wseas/cms.action?id=12125

BibTex

@article{BUT130640,
  author="Michal {Karas} and Mária {Režňáková}",
  title="Bankruptcy Prediction: To what Degree does Past Development Count?",
  journal="WSEAS TRANSACTIONS ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS",
  year="2016",
  volume="13",
  number="1",
  pages="480--488",
  issn="2224-2899",
  url="http://wseas.org/wseas/cms.action?id=12125"
}