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MIKOLÁŠEK, I.
Originální název
STOCHASTIC TRAFFIC DEMAND PROFILE: INTERDAY VARIATION FOR GIVEN TIME AND DAY OF WEEK
Typ
článek v časopise ve Web of Science, Jimp
Jazyk
angličtina
Originální abstrakt
Traffic demand prediction is one of the major elements of traffic planning and modelling. Traffic surveys routinely estimate the profile of traffic demand on a certain road section, showing the expected evolution of the demand over a day or week. However, the actual demand fluctuates around this value on day-to-day basis and thus can exceed otherwise sufficient capacity and consequently cause congestion due to the capacity drop. This type of traffic demand variability has not yet been properly studied although it can play significant role in traffic modelling and engineering. The relevance of this variability is further increasing with the growing popularity of stochastic traffic models. This paper presents results of a statistical analysis of the demand variability in five-minute aggregation intervals. Normal, lognormal and gamma distributions all show reasonably well fit to the data for individual intervals and often do not differ on statistically significant level. Based on the count of the best fits, the lognormal distribution seems to be most suitable, while the gamma distribution is the most universal and with generally acceptable fit. There appears to be a pattern where certain distributions have better fit in different times of the day and week. The regularity and magnitude of demand probably both play a role in this, as well as the aggregation interval. Two simple models for modelling the variability are proposed for practical applications when there is not enough data to perform similar analysis.
Klíčová slova
Random traffic demand; Probability distribution; Traffic model; Goodness-of-fit
Autoři
Vydáno
31. 12. 2022
Nakladatel
CZECH TECHNICAL UNIV PRAGUE, FAC CIVIL ENGINEERING
Místo
PRAGUE 6
ISSN
1805-2576
Periodikum
The Civil Engineering Journal
Ročník
31
Číslo
4
Stát
Česká republika
Strany od
636
Strany do
646
Strany počet
11
URL
https://www.vut.cz/uk/podpora-publikovani/identifikatory/orcid/registrace
BibTex
@article{BUT182405, author="Igor {Mikolášek}", title="STOCHASTIC TRAFFIC DEMAND PROFILE: INTERDAY VARIATION FOR GIVEN TIME AND DAY OF WEEK", journal="The Civil Engineering Journal", year="2022", volume="31", number="4", pages="636--646", doi="10.14311/CEJ.2022.04.0048", issn="1805-2576", url="https://www.vut.cz/uk/podpora-publikovani/identifikatory/orcid/registrace" }